Next Generation Weather and Climate Prediction Systems

Weather and climate prediction

There is a need for better weather and climate prediction. Technical developments in computing and in global-scale observations mean there are enormous opportunities for improving weather and climate prediction, but there are currently major scientific and technical barriers.

Aims

This programme aims to create scientific and technological advances to maintain the UK's lead in environmental prediction. There are two main aims:

1. Resolution of small scale weather systems in the atmosphere and ocean

Most current numerical algorithms are unable to take advantage of the additional processing power of modern super computers. The development of new, more powerful, algorithms involves research challenges in numerical and computational methods.

For ocean modelling, there is a need to integrate modelling of deep ocean and shelf processes, and create a 'roadmap' of needs for ocean modelling systems will be developed.

2. Use of observations to initialise climate predictions

The aim is to develop and evaluate methods for initialization of climate predictions.

This is central to exploiting the opportunities to improve climate models and predictions that arise from the wealth of new observations from earth-based and space-based platforms.

Who will benefit?

• Weather and climate agencies in the UK and international e.g. The Met Office, ECMWF, NCAR, The Korean Meteorology Administration and The Australian Bureau of Meteorology.
• UK economy: the rapidly developing climate services agenda will crate new economic opportunities for the UK, for eample in the insurance industry.

PROGRAMME FACTS AND FIGURES

Start and end dates: Jan 2011 to 2016

Website: www.nerc.ac.uk/research/programmes/ngwcp