Reducing Uncertainty in Models for Environmental Decision-Making

What is the Reducing Uncertainty in Models for Environmental Decision-Making study?

This is a scoping study to inform a larger research activity - the study is now complete and the findings will be announced shortly.

What will the study look at?

The scoping study aimed to identify the priority areas requiring investment to take forward research on human health in a changing environment. This is where pollutants and pathogens pose a significant risk of harm to human health or the wider environment.

Many of the models currently used in environmental policy have large uncertainties in their outputs and so there is a need to obtain the knowledge and data necessary to enhance their performance.

Who will benefit?

A key aspect of the scoping study was working with stakeholders such as the Environment Agency and the Scottish Environmental Protection Agency when making their recommendations.

Background

Most numerical models used for policy or regulatory action use the source-pathway-receptor pollutant model.

Uncertainties can arise at any, and often many, points along this pollutant chain and can be often reduced through targeted research. Examples of uncertainties in current models include:

• how long do pathogens live in the soil?
• regarding bioaerosols from compost: how how fast are they released, how long do they persist in the air and how far do they travel?
• is there an uptake of trace elements by humans from contaminated land?
• how does the release of volatile organic compounds from plants depend on temperature and sunlight?
• what controls the release of nitrous oxide from soils as a result of denitrification?
• how do models predicting where industrial chemicals go in the environment depend on changes in climate?

PROGRAMME FACTS AND FIGURES

Total investment: £80k

Start and end date: 01/02/2010 to 31/07/2010