Storm Risk Mitigation through Improved Prediction and Impact Modelling

Storm Risk

Storms have had an increasing social and economic cost over recent years and are likely to be a main cause of loss of life and assets in the UK over the next few decades. With climate change, the costs of storm impacts are likely to increase. This has highlighted the need to improve forecasting of storms. 

See story on LWEC website

What will the programme do?

The programme will improve storm forecasting in two ways:

a) in the short-term (0-48 hours) through numerical weather prediction.
b) in the long-term (over decades) through improved climate prediction.

On both timescales there is a need to improve forecasting of impacts.

More needs to be known on prediction of mid-latitude storms, particularly extra-tropical cyclones, to inform short-term mitigation strategies against the impacts of hazardous weather such as high winds and heavy rain.

Objectives

The programme will

• improve short and longer term forecasting of storms and their impacts on catchments and coasts.

• improve links with impact models to better inform policy and enable preventative measures to minimise risks associated with storms.

• improve the way in which information flows between numerical weather prediction, climate models and impacts models.

Who will benefit?

Evidence from this programme will be available to a variety of users including policy makers (e.g. Environment Agency and Defra), and industry (e.g. Insurance).

This will be achieved through various activities for example, policy placements within Government Departments and production of policy-relevant information such as updates, briefings and summaries. 

PROGRAMME FACTS AND FIGURES

Start and end dates: 2009 to 2014

Website: http://www.nerc.ac.uk/research/programmes/stormrisk/background.asp