Quantifying Uncertainty: EQUIP

What is the 'Quantifying Uncertainty' programme?

This is a research programme with one project called 'End-to-end quantification of uncertainty for impacts prediction'.(EQUIP) The project brings together the UK climate modelling, statistical modelling, and impacts communities to work closely together for the first time on developing risk-based prediction for decision making in the face of climate variability and change.

This will be carried out on a range of sectors; crops, marine ecosystems, water management and heat related mortality due to heat waves and droughts.

Read more about EQUIP in this story on the LWEC website.

What will the programme do?

• Improve the methods for risk-based prediction, quantification of uncertainty and identification of information content that will be used widely by the scientific community, including UK Climate Impacts Programme.
• Inform policy through improved predictions of near-term climate change and its impacts, including information on the relevance and applicability of the predictions.
• Engage users in order to ensure that maximum use is gained from climate science.
• Contribute to the fifth assessment report of the IPCC, through improved quantification of uncertainty across climate and its impacts and through sets of impacts projections based on the fiifth assessment report model simulations conducted elsewhere.

Who will benefit?

People who need to use climate predictions for decision making will get guidance on the quality and value of current climate and impact predictions, plus a greater understanding of the limitations of these models.

PROGRAMME FACTS AND FIGURES

Start and end dates: 01/01/2010 to 31/12/2012

Other organisations involved:
CAFOD
Leeds University Africa College

Website: http://www.equip.leeds.ac.uk

Articles: Planet Earth, the magazine of the Natural Environment Research Council, has published an article on this project called 'Fully Equiped'. You can download a pdf below.