NERC Themes: Climate Systems & Natural Hazards Applications are invited to attend a four day 'sandpit' event addressing the following Research Programme action: Methods for quantifying uncertainty in predictions of regional and local climate change and climate impacts Date of event: 5-8 May 2009 Application closing date: 16:00 on 16 February 2009 Venue: TBC Central location The aim of the sandpit is to develop a multi-disciplinary collaborative research project(s) with clear deliverables in the form of methods and tools that can be applied to a wide range of prediction applications. This research must bring together experts in statistical modelling and complexity theory with experts in climate science and climate impacts alongside research users and decision makers. NERC has allocated up to £1·4m (where this is 80% of the Full Economic Costs) to fund research arising from the sandpit event.
What is a sandpit? A sandpit is an intensive, interactive and free thinking workshop event, where a diverse group of scientists from a range of disciplines get together to immerse themselves in an exciting collaborative thinking process in a creative environment to uncover innovative solutions and prepare research proposals. It is usually possible to both develop a proposal and present it to the full group, providing peer review and a decision on the research that should be supported.
The sandpit will be led by a Director who will be assisted by independent advisors and professional facilitators. The research challenge At the heart of NERC's strategy are plans to deliver the science needed to provide solutions to the global environmental challenges that the world is facing today and will face in the future.
NERC has identified seven themes under which this science will be delivered. The first phase Theme Action Plans (TAPs 2008) include a research programme activity on 'quantifying uncertainty in predictions of regional and local climate change and climate impacts'. It has been developed as part of the Climate System and Natural Hazards themes.
Quantitative estimates of uncertainty are a central element of "risk-based predictions" and are therefore fundamental to addressing the overarching goal of the Climate Systems theme.
This programme also directly addresses NERC Natural Hazard strategy challenges on recognition, quantification and communication of uncertainty, extreme events and improved integrated risk assessment and scientific advice. The Programme will contribute to the Living With Environmental Change initiative in addressing the key issue of uncertainty in climate modelling. A better understanding and quantifying of uncertainty is essential to help develop more effective mitigation and adaptation strategies.
Research requirements The research project(s) developed, assessed and selected at the sandpit event will be required to:
* Develop and test methods to combine observations and models to quantify the uncertainty in predictions of regional and local climate change, including changes in extreme events and climate impacts, especially for the next few decades.
* Bring together experts in statistical modelling and complexity theory with experts in climate science and climate impacts alongside research users decision makers.
* Produce and disseminate clear deliverables in the form of methods and tools that can be applied to a wide range of prediction and policy/planning decision applications.
* Provide benchmarks against which efforts to narrow uncertainty can be measured.
* Build on work already begun at the Hadley Centre and in the UK academic community.
* Continue strengthening and promoting UK leadership in this field.
* Meet the requirements of users developing policy on the basis of predictions.
* Meet NERC Governance and Performance Management requirements. It will be desirable for the research project(s) to also:
* Stimulate collaboration between NERC Centres and HEIs.
* Produce results of relevance beyond the field of climate prediction and feed into the wider programme on Uncertainty and Risk that is planned under the Natural Hazards theme.
* Achieve greater clarity and consensus about the most appropriate methods to quantify uncertainty in predictions.
* Aim to have a major impact on the developing plans for the IPCC 5th Assessment report. There are many research challenges in this field.
However, the specific challenges of high priority are:
A) Developing methods to combine observations and models to quantify the uncertainty in predictions of regional and local climate change and climate impacts. Particular priorities in this area include:
* Predictions of changes in extreme events.
* Understanding the relationships between errors in model simulations of the present-day and the past, and the uncertainties in future predictions.
* Handling errors that are common to all climate models.
* Incorporating effectively information from models that may be very different in structure or resolution.
* Handling different sources of uncertainty.
* Generic approaches for handling climate impacts.
B) Developing strategies and benchmarks to evaluate alternative methods for generating predictions, including decadal predictions for which hindcast sets can be generated.
How the sandpit event will work The event will run over four days and will involve 12-18 participants. The aim is to bring together a unique mix of expertise to produce a research proposal(s) to address the objectives and requirements detailed above. Participants will develop an innovative collaborative research proposal through discussions with each other, the director and advisors.
Please Note: Only sandpit participants my receive funding as a Principal or Co-Investigator on a resulting award. The process of the event will be in several stages:
* defining the scope of the issue;
* agreeing a common language and terminology; * sharing understanding of the problem, and the expertise brought by the participants;
* focusing on the problem, using creative and innovative thinking techniques in break-out sessions;
* capturing the outputs in the form of a research project(s) (a multi-disciplinary team will be expected to develop the detailed proposal that is submitted). This will be an intensive event. For the well-being of participants, the venue will offer opportunities for relaxation, and the timetable will include informal networking activities as a break from the detailed technical discussions. The director and advisors will play a full part, but will not be eligible to receive research funding, and so will act as impartial peer reviewers in the process. Those selected to attend will receive further briefing before the event.
Application procedure for sandpit participants Who should apply? We invite applications to participate in the sandpit from individual UK researchers who are:
* Researchers from eligible UK institutions able to act on successful projects as Principal Investigator or Co-Investigator. See NERC Research Grants Handbook for further eligibility information.
* Experienced PDRAs who could make an important contribution and would gain additional benefits by attending; eg developing new links, gaining experience. They may potentially act as researcher co-investigators on a resulting award.
* Individuals from UK organisations not eligible to receive NERC funding who feel they could make an important contribution to the research. They may potentially act as project partners on successful projects.
Applicants must be available to attend for the full duration of the sandpit event and an application will be taken as a definite commitment to attend.
Substitutes or representatives for selected applicants will not be permitted to attend under any circumstances. We encourage applications from all relevant research areas. It would be beneficial for applicants to have some prior knowledge of one or more of the following: climate dynamics; climate modelling and prediction; climate impacts; statistical modelling, particularly of extreme events; complexity theory; handling uncertainty in complex systems. But more importantly applicants must demonstrate an enthusiasm for cross-disciplinary research and indicate how their expertise can address the defined problem.
Applicants should not feel limited by conventional perceptions: this event is about bringing together people who may not normally interact.
How to apply Applicants should complete the two-page Expression of Interest form attached below. Please ensure you fully complete the Expressions of Interest form, as this is the only information used for the selection of participants. Your answers to these questions will be used to differentiate your application and convince us that you have the suitable skills and attitude to participate in this event. We are looking for both your relevant skills and expertise and for evidence of how you might approach the multidisciplinary problem that the research question raise.
Completed Expression of Interest forms should be submitted by email to ansi@nerc.ac.uk by 16:00 on 16 February 2009. Applications before this date would be welcomed. No further documentation will be accepted and we will not consider late submissions. We will inform applicants in March 2009 of the outcome of the selection process.
If selected as a participant your CV details may be made available at the event to other participants to facilitate networking.
Assessment Criteria A panel of experts consisting of the sandpit director, selected advisors and a NERC representative will identify approximately 12-18 participants to take part in the sandpit. The participant selection panel will seek to ensure that a balance of expertise is present at the sandpit; their assessment will be based on the criteria outlined below.
* specific expertise relevant to the topic;
* the ability to develop new and highly original research ideas;
* the potential to contribute to the research between disciplines;
* the ability to work in a team;
* the ability to explain own research to non experts.
Please also note that it will not possible to provide feedback to unsuccessful applicants.
Post-sandpit activities Following the sandpit event, investigators involved in the selected project(s) will be tasked with writing a full proposal covering their intended activities as identified at the sandpit.
The deadline for submission of a proposal generated at the sandpit is likely to be 11 June 2009. The proposal must be submitted via the Research Councils Joint Electronic Submission System (Je-S). Further guidance on this part of the process will be provided to successful participants at a later date. To support and maintain the new links and collaborations developed at the sandpit, network funding will form a component of the funded project(s) to allow the interaction of all sandpit participants (including director/advisors) to continue and contribute to the success of the research.
Contact Details For further information, advice or queries regarding format of the event and application procedure please contact: Dr Sarah Collinge Tel: 01793 411936 Ann Kemp Tel: 01793 411737
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